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NewsWednesday, October 1, 2008 7:22 AM CDT
Actuarial math: One-in-four chance McCain may not survive 2nd term
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WASHINGTON, D.C. -- If John McCain is elected and goes on to win a second term, there’s as much as a one-in-four chance America could see its first woman president — Sarah Palin. It’s actuarial math. | Interactive quiz: Presidential health | Lawmakers scramble to revise bailout

The odds highly favor either McCain or Barack Obama completing a first term in good health. After that, McCain’s odds still are still fairly solid, but his chances of dying or being in poor health go up faster than Obama’s, mainly because of his age.

An Atlanta, Ga., actuarial company specializing in individualized estimates of life and health expectancy has run the numbers for McCain, 72, and Obama, 47. The firm, Bragg Associates, calculated the odds of the candidates dying in office, adjusted for their known health problems.

McCain would be the oldest president to begin a first term in office. By the end of a second term, Jan. 20, 2017, he would have a 24.44 percent chance of dying, compared with 5.76 percent for Obama, the firm estimates.

“Can either candidate expect to serve two terms in a healthy state? The answer is yes,” says James C. Brooks, Jr., an actuary with the firm. “They’re both in outstanding health for people of their age.”

Illness is another issue.

Because chances of developing a serious ailment are higher for any person than are the chances of dying, Bragg used the candidates’ medical information to estimate how many years of good health might be in store for each. After all, a debilitating illness could force a president to step down.

The firm estimates that McCain has a health expectancy of 8.4 years, while Obama can expect another 21.9 years of good health. The calculations are from January, 2009, covering two terms in office for either candidate. McCain, if he’s like others in his age group, would have a cushion of just about five months.

‘There a randomness to it’

But no one really knows. Actuaries like Brooks make statistical calculations for insurance companies, based on numbers culled from large databases. No matter how sophisticated, they can’t predict anyone’s future.

“There a randomness to it that we don’t know,” said Ron Gebhardtsbauer, who directs the actuarial science program at Penn State’s Smeal College of Business.

For example, he said, “if McCain is president, he’ll get the best health care in the world. I can’t crank that into any of my numbers.”

Health expectancy calculations, although relatively new, are becoming increasingly important as people buy long-term-care insurance.

“We’ve done thousands of these health expectancy calculations for financial planners,” said Brooks. “People, especially those with high net worth, are concerned more about the risk of living too long than about what happens if they die prematurely. What if they need long-term care?”

The firm’s estimates for McCain and Obama relied on medical information disclosed by the candidates. Bragg Associates has no partisan agenda, said Brooks: “We don’t have a dog in this hunt.”

He classified the Democrat as a smoker with minor upper respiratory problems, probably linked to his smoking. Obama announced in February that he was trying to quit smoking again, with the aid of nicotine gum.

“We don’t consider you a nonsmoker until you stay quit for 12 months,” said Brooks.

In the spring, the Obama campaign released a letter from the candidate’s doctor declaring him to be in excellent health. He had very good cholesterol levels, his EKG was normal, his pulse was 60 beats per minute, and his blood pressure was an outstanding 90 over 60. Obama also exercises regularly.

But Obama has a family history of cancer. His mother died of ovarian cancer and his maternal grandfather died of prostate cancer. Obama’s PSA screening test for prostate cancer showed no sign of abnormalities.

For the Republican, Brooks took into account a history of skin cancer, degenerative arthritis from his Vietnam war injuries, moderately high cholesterol, mild vertigo and that McCain is a former smoker who quit in 1980.

McCain allowed reporters to review eight years of medical records, more than 1,000 pages. They show that he is cancer-free, has a strong heart and is generally in good health. As a three-time melanoma survivor, his biggest health worry is a recurrence of that cancer. But he is closely watched by his dermatologist, and any future melanoma should be caught in time to be treated successfully. McCain maintains a healthy weight and blood pressure, and takes medication for his cholesterol.

Vice presidential candidates Joe Biden and Sarah Palin have not released their medical records, although Biden has promised to. Biden, 65, had surgery 20 years ago to repair a life-threatening brain aneurysm. He was out of the Senate for seven months while he recuperated but says he’s fine now. Palin, 44, a mother of five, gave birth earlier this year to a son, Trig, who was born with Down syndrome.

Take a look
Republican John McCain would be the oldest president to begin a first term in office. By the end of a second term, Jan. 20, 2017, he would have a 24.44 percent chance of dying, compared with 5.76 percent for Obama, the firm estimates. (AP Photo/John Bazemore, File)
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Reader comments on this story - 39 total

Note: All views and opinions expressed in reader comments are solely those of the individual submitting the comment, and not those of the Pantagraph or its staff.

justmythoughts wrote on Oct 1, 2008 2:47 PM:

" Friends don't let friends drink and post. "

justmythoughts wrote on Oct 1, 2008 2:46 PM:

" survise? Wow. "

mrw wrote on Oct 1, 2008 1:12 PM:

" I thought he was running for his first term, Did I miss something, was he already elected? By the way, if he survise the first term his actuarial odds to surve his second term increase dramatically. They forgot to mention that. "

landlord wrote on Oct 1, 2008 6:07 AM:

" This just in from the AP - 10 out of 10 people will die at the end of their lifetimes! "

I am Squidward wrote on Oct 1, 2008 5:59 AM:

" Dish: "Like, oh my- totally. When all those dead "voters" in Crook County get up-n-rock da vote the D's are totally gunna win. It's gunna be like a totally retro- Michael Jackson video. Fur sure." I'm betting, Dish, that you're not familiar with the "Electoral College System," are you? Illinois' electoral college votes are so solidly locked up for the dem ticket due to Chicago that who we vote for here in McLean County means nothing. But you knew that, right? The only reason that the "AP" and "P-Graphy" ran this "story" is to assist with closing the gap on the nationwide popular vote. "

thedish wrote on Oct 1, 2008 1:39 AM:

" We won't have to worry if he'll die in office. There won't be a first term for McCain. We've had 8 years of hell thanks to Republicans. I think America is a little smarter this time around and is going to put someone who's going to do something besides die in the White House *coughOBAMAcough*. Plus I think there are more Democrats at ISU than there are Republicans in the area. Illinois will rock the D vote. "

OGS wrote on Sep 30, 2008 11:55 PM:

" Who cares? "

Wooden Spoon wrote on Sep 30, 2008 11:47 PM:

" Um, you guys are all assuming he survives the FIRST term (if elected)!! "

annie oakley wrote on Sep 30, 2008 11:05 PM:

" the liberal communist media with all thier b.s. will not stop me from voting Mccain/Palin 2008! "

Otown_boy wrote on Sep 30, 2008 10:34 PM:

" I have to laugh at some of the reactions here. I knew you McCain supporters had thin skin but this is just too comical. "

Oh, behave... wrote on Sep 30, 2008 9:42 PM:

" This has no place in a campaign. Death likelihood? I don't see you doing this to Obama.... I mean, come on, wasn't it Obama's plane that had a declared emergency a bit ago? None of us know how much time we have. I suppose he's supposed to just sit out because there's a bigger chance he could die? Who said McCain would run again, anyway? Why don't you just let people run on their platform and not their health stats? You're just trying to get your digs in...and, as a newspaper, I find it EXTREMELY tacky. "

excuseme wrote on Sep 30, 2008 9:22 PM:

" PrettyinPink....in case you forgot...."they only print stuff that idiots would read..."...ROFLMAO "

excuseme wrote on Sep 30, 2008 9:21 PM:

" PrettyinPink...You read this article? What does that make you? ROFLMAO "

420 wrote on Sep 30, 2008 9:20 PM:

" Just another reason to vote for neither of them... I write in Dr. Ron Paul the only man who will ever fix this nations waste... "

max sniler wrote on Sep 30, 2008 9:14 PM:

" OK, my last comment was censored, how about Obama's actuarial chances from the racists in the south???? Doubt this will make it through either, but I'll keep trying "

Otown_boy wrote on Sep 30, 2008 8:59 PM:

" *Yawns "

Proud Conservative wrote on Sep 30, 2008 8:36 PM:

" I can't wait for tomorrow's story from our watchdog media - which claims it's poviding fair coverage - about The Messiah's smoking habit, and analysis of Sicke Cell Anemia which afflicts African-Americans.

Of course that in-depth analysis will also belabor the over-used line that nut-job Biden - who last week told a guy in a wheelchair to stand up - is "just a heartbeat away from the presidency."

The media will cover this..........right? "

TheRudeAwakening wrote on Sep 30, 2008 8:35 PM:

" Next, the Pantagraph will tell us that there is a 1 in 10 chance that McCain is really a space alien from Jupiter. Come on Pantagraph, why did you have to place your newspaper status up there with the National Enquirer? Did Meh have something to do with you grasping for votes? What a ridiculous article. "

tatbtime wrote on Sep 30, 2008 8:05 PM:

" right on it liquid toast! Vote McCain. "

The Cat wrote on Sep 30, 2008 7:39 PM:

" How do we know what Obummer's health is like since he has managed to hide those records like every aspect of any paper trail with his life? "

Zeva wrote on Sep 30, 2008 7:32 PM:

" Oh please crystal ball tell ME my future! Why are they so morbid; and what will they do if he lives to be 100? This is the most ridiculous story I've ever seen. So ridiculous I didn't read it. So does this mean everyone MUST vote for Obama because McCain won't survive? I will vote for the person I choose not the one they feel I should or a write in candidate. "

prettyinpink wrote on Sep 30, 2008 6:13 PM:

" What kind of news is this? How morbid can the press get. I guess if this is all they can bring up on McCain while the economy is in a crisis, then GOOD! Seriously though, this is the problem with the press, they only print stuff that idiots would read, and my guess is most of those idiots are voting for Obama...good luck with that. "

loon wrote on Sep 30, 2008 6:10 PM:

" Why this headline? The chances of there even being a first term for McCain is pretty unlikely. "

cats55ire wrote on Sep 30, 2008 5:48 PM:

" this is not news . . . another bias media bowl of crapola!

I'm still voting for McCain! "

Meh wrote on Sep 30, 2008 5:47 PM:

" blackhawk, meaningless. My great grandmother lived to be 104. Her daughter died a year before her at age 70. Neither were smokers, ate reasonably healthy, etc. The difference? My great aunt died of cancer. McCain has had how many bouts with that? "

ofc313 wrote on Sep 30, 2008 5:36 PM:

" I am sure there is just as great of a chance of some whackball extremist group planning an attack on our first black President. then giving us a Nixon era Senator as a president. Or what about a true nut job from San Fran taking them both out so we can have Nancy Pelosi. Let me think of more nonsense like this to print. "

I am Squidward wrote on Sep 30, 2008 5:13 PM:

" Ahhh, the "AP" and the "P-Graphy" teaming up again to bring us some more "news." Not. "

Charlemagne wrote on Sep 30, 2008 5:06 PM:

" Palin as president is scary. Vote for Obama "

noogie wrote on Sep 30, 2008 4:57 PM:

" All the more reason to vote for Bob Barr. "

redeemed1 wrote on Sep 30, 2008 4:21 PM:

" I would rather have a dead president than a socialist. "

TrueGrit wrote on Sep 30, 2008 4:08 PM:

" Well said Liquid Toast Man!
I wonder what Obama's would be with his history of sucking down lung darts? "

blackhawk wrote on Sep 30, 2008 3:54 PM:

" McCains mother is 90 + years and still functioning quite well. This is nothing more than a Pantagraph " Vote for Obama" puff piece. Why not go into how african americans have higher instances of blood pressure problems and other diseases that could put Joe Biden one heartbeat away from the presidency. "

Sam Wainwright wrote on Sep 30, 2008 3:41 PM:

" So who will be there to respond when Putin rears his head? Alaskans! "

justmythoughts wrote on Sep 30, 2008 3:25 PM:

" They also say that airline pilots cannot pilot the aircraft after the age of 60. I can see >some< logic in that, but not much. Give them more frequent physicals, perhaps semi-annual rather than annual. On the other hand, if my hind quarters are resting in a plane in trouble, I'll take the 72 year old pilot over the 47 year old. Give me the man with the experience it takes to get said hind quarters back on the ground safely if at all possible thank you very much. "

ktlin wrote on Sep 30, 2008 3:07 PM:

" Saying McCain allowed reporters to examine records is a stretch. He allowed certain people not just a bunch of random reporters to view info for a certain amount of time like 30 minutes with no cameras or recording devices. It wasn't like they had free access at all which makes you wonder why the time limit? If there is nothing there to worry about. "

ktlin wrote on Sep 30, 2008 3:01 PM:

" I think the odds that they are talking about would decrease dramatically if they calculated in that he has had cancer 3 or 4 times. I would love to see that result then. It would effect either of them dramatically at whatever age. Now we need to discuss the odds that Palin will survive the vp debate. I just heard someone say that is she just survives it will be enough. That is another thought. Staying alive and thinking rationally are 2 different things. What is the odds that McCain will still be thinking rationally at age 73 - 77, 78. Look around and check people of similar ages out. Especially those that have been through what he has been through during his life. "

Liquid Toast Man wrote on Sep 30, 2008 2:57 PM:

" Well if this isn't a "We at the Pantagraph want you to vote Barack" I'm not sure what is. This isn't even news worthy. "

The other Dave wrote on Sep 30, 2008 2:32 PM:

" BUt there is a 4 in 4 chance that OCarter has no experience. "

cderry wrote on Sep 30, 2008 2:15 PM:

" Just when I thought we didn't have enough mathematical minds crunching numbers I care about, like the financial crisis or the chances my Roth IRA rebounds, we get really crucial data like this. Why was someone wasted for this purpose and then why did we print their findings? This is morbid and ridiculous. "

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